Thursday, November 12, 2020

Coronavirus Vaccine's Impact

On 11/9, Pfizer announced that their covid vaccine was found to be 90% effective in a clinical trail of 44,000 test subjects. 

What does this mean?

The stock market soared 1500 points first thing Monday morning.

Royal Caribbean Cruises stock ended up 25% while Zoom dropped 13%.

I think that Pfizer's news is wonderful, especially considering the massive outbreaks happening in Europe and across the U.S. (The U.S. is tallying over 100,00 new cases a day).  Deadline reported that 3 entertainment productions have closed this week due to positive COVID tests and I know of at least 2 last week. One of these my son was going to work on and I was scheduled to work another. We dodge the bullet on those shows.

The world knows that we sorely need a vaccine, hence the stock market jump.

However, the exuberance party was short lived as Tuesday the market ended up only 262 points and it is down today 108 points. 

There are two issues.

The first is time. If Pfizer passes all the recommended safety tests, it could be June before the vaccine is made widely available to the public. That is a long time from now. 8 months. I just realized, tomorrow 11/13/20 is exactly 8 months since Los Angeles went into lockdown mode - Friday the 13th of March. 

Trivia question: who said, "Beware the Ides of March"? (Close enough to the 15th to make it relevant. Answer below.)

Second, who is going to get vaccinated? Many people I speak to are scared of getting a vaccine whether it is for covid or any other disease. Safety is their main issue. Can the government force people to get vaccinated? Can the government or private businesses deny services like access to public school or Disneyland or a cruise ship to unvaccinated individuals?

In the movie Children Of Men, a vaccine to stop a deadly plague made everyone infertile. That is a chilling worst case scenario. Only in movies right?

But if people don't get vaccinated, how long will the economies of the world economy continue to be at risk of future shutdowns? Months, years? I read that New York is looking at closing its schools again. Los Angeles' have never opened. 

For now, all we can do is social distance, wear a mask, and keep washing those hands. We have to for at least for the next 8 months.

Take care and be safe.


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Trivia answer: The soothsayer to Julius Cesar in William Shakespeare's play.


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