Coronavirus - Sprint To The Finish Line

Coronavirus news keeps getting better and better.

As if to confirm that productions are ramping up across the board, I overheard a producer on one set tell a crew member that Hollywood is going full bore on filming right now. Everyone is busy, he said.

Less than a month ago, President Biden said that the vaccine rollout was going so well that by May 1st, every person over 16 will be eligible to receive the shot. Then Texas said they will move up that date in their state to March 29. As if not to be left too far behind, California moved their date for all adults to begin scheduling their vaccinations to April 15th.

President Biden on March 25th, said that by his 100th day in office over 200 million shots will be put into people's arms - that is over half of all Americans.

I keep hearing multiple people on set and even on the radio state how their entire families have been vaccinated already. The other day someone said they were planning on having a big family bbq on Easter as they have all been vaccinated.

Last week I walked into a taco shop and was asked if my tacos were for here or to go. I automatically said for here. When I sat down to eat, I realize that I had slipped back into my old pre-covid routine of indoor dining. Something I had not done in over a year. It was so odd, yet so familiar.

One common question on set is how much longer will we need coronavirus testing as more people are vaccinated. Testing is a huge expense to the entertainment industry, yet shutdowns are even more costly.

While the pace of vaccinations is rapidly increasing, there are constant reminders that we still have a long ways to go to return to our old normal.

Take care and be safe.

Posts weekly.

Coronavirus Anniversay

It was exactly one year ago today, Friday the 13th of March, that coronavirus changed the world for me.

That morning, 50 background actors had just dressed in our 50's era costumes. The women had had their hair done (hair in curlers since the night before), men clean shaved and hair shellacked. We sat down for breakfast before a long day of filming when a production assistant hurried into holding and said, "That's it. It's wrap. The -- studio has just shut down all of their productions until further notice due to the coronavirus."

I later learned that every other studio had done the same thing that day. Actors, crew, craft services, musicians, and the like were now out of work.

Coronavirus had impacted me prior to this day: my wife's office had all employees working from home since the previous Monday; my son's school had effectively closed two days earlier; and I had been taking daily shopping trips looking for toilet paper. Oh, and the stock market had dropped over 30% over the previous three weeks.

But now, I was out of work. The mayor of Los Angeles effectively shutdown the city. Everything that used to be done indoors like haircuts, shopping, eating at restaurants, going to movies, museums, and working unless it was for an essential business was closed. It seemed like the only businesses a person could leave their house to visit were grocery stores and take out restaurants. We couldn't even visit family members who did not live in our dwelling. In Spain quarantining was so strict that some people used fake dogs so they could leave their house if only for five minutes a day.

Of course there was a valid reason for these precautions.

According to worldmeter.com, as of today, 2,658,861 people have died from coronavirus. In the United States, the number is 546,557. The total number of reported covid-19 cases in the U.S.is 30,043,115, or about 10% of the population.

Wow. Just, wow.

So where are we now one year later?

In a record amount of time, the world has created a vaccine, as our former President dubbed the effort, "Operation Warp Speed." Millions of people within the United States have been vaccinated. Our current President said that every American over 18 years of age will be able to make an appointment for the vaccine beginning May 1, 2021.

Grocery stores are fully stocked. The stock market is back to pre-coronavirus levels, as are gas prices, but thankfully, traffic is still not quite as bad as many people work from home now.

But things will not be back to the old normal any time soon.

Los Angeles still does not allow indoor dining, going to the movies, or exercising in an indoor gym, and my son still has to receive his education through distance learning as public high schools in Los Angeles County are still closed. However, it appears that Los Angeles will be lifting many of these restrictions soon. Cruise ships are still dead in the water with booking dates consistently being pushed back and international travel is still heavily restricted.

Yet, sets are open again, with everyone wearing masks, face shields, and some crew wearing full-on helmets. Coronavirus testing is a way of life whether in the mouth, nose, or what feels like the brain sometimes. My friend asked me the other day how many coronavirus test have I have had. The answer is 32, not including rapid tests on the days that I worked on set.

My wife and friend are still working from home as their companies' physical offices are closed and have told them that it will be at least summer before they can return to the office.

I will say that my family of 4 has definitely grown closer together by talking daily, eating meals together, working out together, watching t.v., etc. Life has slowed down. It has allowed me to focus on my goals and rebalance priorities in life. There is always a light somewhere, even during the darkest times.

It has been a year for the ages. I hope the next one is as well - but crazy happy instead of just plain crazy.

Take care and be safe.

Posts weekly.

Coronavirus - Rising Inflation?

Let me start by saying that I am not a financial advisor, so my thoughts about the coronavirus economy are based solely on my experience.

How is inflation related to covid? As the covid crisis eases with hundreds of thousands of people being vaccinated daily and restrictions on businesses loosening, the U.S. economy appears to be rebounding. Last week's unemployment numbers decreased and employment numbers increased.

With wages increasing and a new stimulus package on the way putting more money into the economy, the demands for goods and services will also theoretically increase. Where there is demand, there are price increases aka inflation.

If wages are increasing at the same rate as prices or slower, then inflation is not so bad. However, inflation has a bad reputation for many reasons. First, usually wages rise at a much slower rate than the prices on goods and services. This means that everyone is negatively affected. Second, wages rise much slower for low wage earners than high wage earners. For example, a 3% raise for a $30,000 a year worker is much different than a 3% raise for a $60,000 a year worker. Third, to combat inflation from getting out of control, governments will try to slow down the economy from overheating by raising interest rates. It encourages saving versus spending. Higher interest rates means that lending becomes more expensive. This means that housing prices will become cheaper, yet to buy a new house, you will have pay a higher interest rate. Business will be slower to expand operations because business loans will be more expensive. Now the hope for all this government induced pain is to crimp demand to a more "reasonable" level, so prices will stabilize or go down. That is the theory.

Someone once told me that the best analyzer of the market is not a business analyst who studied business, but a business analyst who studied psychology.

Last week the government did not raise rates, however the fear that they would raise rates caused the bond market and stock market to move significantly last week. In the case of the stock market, a serious drop.

I hope this post sheds a little light about why the stock market tanked last week with all the good news coming out about our economy rebounding from the coronavirus slump. I know, it seems counterintuitive, but as the coronavirus-era has showed us, life is full of curveballs.

Stay safe everyone.

Posts weekly.