Coronavirus: Year End Recap

It is the start of 2022 and the Coronavirus epidemic is still with us. The biggest news is we have yet another variant - Omicron. This variant is supposed to be extremely contigious but most people who are infected with it only have mild symptons.

Testing kits are now available to purchase in stores over the counter which was not possible a year ago - although they are hard to find right now.

Cruise ships are sailing. People are flying. Domestic travel especially to National Parks is up as some countries are still restricting travel. I am hoping to travel to Spain this year after having to cancel our plans two years ago.

People are still wearing masks - and are required to do so indoors in California, but that is not necessarily a rule across the country.

Many people are still working from home or in hybrid situations splitting time between home and office.

Few shortages are hitting the news these days, primarily microchips for cars and delays on international shipping. Still, retailers announced strong sales during the recent Christmas season and Tesla delivered over 300k cars in the last quarter.

The government has cut or is rolling back most economic stimulus packages directed at shoring up the economy and people's psyche during covid showing confidence in the country's recovery.

Final covid numbers as of today according to the New York Times: Total U.S. deaths due to covid 826,000; in the world 5,450,000.

62% of population in the U.S. is fully vaccinated: 73% have at least one shot; 20% are fully vaccinated and have received a booster shot.

In history books, 2020 will be the year of the covid outbreak and 2021 will be the year of recovery not just for the U.S., but the world. I think if things continue taking the current course, getting better - vaccines are available, effective anti-viral drugs and pills are available to combat infection, and the current strain has mild symptoms - covid will become a footnote to everything great and hopefully not too terrible that 2022 will bring.

Take care and have an awesome 2022!

Coronavirus Birth Control?

When coronavirus first started making waves, people debated how the epidemic would affect birth rates. One argument was that there would be more babies because there was nothing else for people to do but stay home and make whoopie. The other argument was fewer babies because fewer people were getting married, fewer people were dating so there was less chance of unexpected pregnancies, and during tough economic times people historically have had fewer babies.

The verdict: the birth rate in the United States is the lowest that it has been in 42 years according to the CDC. It appears that the second argument won.

Which begs the question, what happened in 1979 that caused such a low birth rate? PRB said it was due to the oil shock, economic recession, and double-digit inflation in the 1970s. These scenarios created a situation where for the first time since WWII, being able to support a family on one income became impossible for most Americans. With two parents working, having babies translated into increased childcare expenses, the term latchkey kids became a thing, and the birthrate declined.

But not all is doom and gloom for humanity's future, at least in regard to depopulation. When economies rebound and people feel better about their prospects for the future, birthrates tend to rebound. Declining cases of covid, increased vaccination rates, and an opening economy are examples of better prospects. Yahoo stated that condom sales increased by 23% from March to mid-April this year according to market research firm IRI. While condoms are used to prevent pregnancies, that statistics indicate that people are becoming more sexually active. My wife and I walking through the park the last couple of days have seen many young couples in their late teens on obvious dates. My wedding photographer friends said they are getting lots of bookings now after a brutal year and a half.

Our coronavirus winter is ending and humanity is emerging from their dens. Let Spring begin.

Take care and be safe.

Posts weekly.

Coronavirus Family Vaccination

We have been vaccinated! Aside from sore arms and tiredness the 1st 2 days we had no side effects.

My wife received the J and J two days before the news broke about blood clots. That was over 3 weeks ago so she should be out of the danger zone. Also, the FDA has allowed the J and J shot to be used again.

I was vaccinated a week later during the J and J hiatus so I was left with the two-shot option. I received the Pfizer shot. I had no problem scheduling a shot 48 hours later through the city's Carbon Health site.

Last week, my sons booked their shots but they were cancelled. Not because of shortages, blood clots, or equity tiers but because of the Chauvin verdict.

Los Angeles city officials feared that its citizens would not be able to handle the jury's decision.

My sons received their shots a couple of days later - a couple of days after school reopening.

The vaccination program, early high infection rate in Los Angeles, and ongoing precautions seem to be putting the city in a great situation.

This week Los Angeles County made the numbers to move to the least-restrictive yellow tier for reopening meaning 1.9 new covid cases for every 100,000 residents. One more week of these low numbers and we will move from orange to yellow.

Yellow means that indoor fitness centers, bars, amusement parks, and stadiums would all be able to start operating or if operating already, increase their capacity percentages.

Being vaccinated means life is almost back to normal. A week ago, a coworker shook my hand. It was so odd, yet so normal. It felt really good. I did sanitize afterwards, but having that physical contact with someone who did not live in my immediate household over the last 14 months was liberating.

But we are not out of the woods yet. There is still negative news: deaths in India soaring, covid booster shots may be needed - for years, new variants keep appearing, so we still have to take precautions.

The entertainment industry just extended their covid safety measures that were set to expire today, April 30, to June 30. That means continued covid tests - I had seven in the last week alone.

As coronavirus' reign seems to be coming to a close, my blog posts will be weekly or every other week depending upon new coronavirus developments.

Take care and be safe.

Coronavirus - Mixed Messages

Coronavirus news has been all over the place from super positive to dire. Take a look at a few headlines I pulled today:

"California Oks indoor sports, concerts as COVID cases plunge" - AP News 4/2/21

"COVID: California reports most new cases in almost 4 weeks" - The Mercury News 4/3/21

"The final insult: Some dying of COVID while awaiting the vaccine" - AP News 4/3/21

The CDC said 30% of all Americans have been vaccinated so far. And my wife and friends (over 50) have secured appointments online for vaccinations at Cal State LA, CVS, and Walmart.

And then different states are doing their own thing. Half of the states are now vaccinating anyone over 16, the other half are only vaccinating people still people only over 50 unless you qualify for one of a dozen varying exceptions. Then there is this news:

"The CDC updated its guidance to say fully vaccinated people can travel within the U.S. without getting tested for the coronavirus or going into quarantine afterward." From

Yet as of today, states like Alaska and Hawaii are still requiring testing. Los Angeles "requires" any resident who travels more than 150 miles from LA and comes back to self-quarantine for 10-days. However, I don't know anyone in LA who is abiding by the quarantine.

Then there is the vaccination symptoms concern where like a box of chocolates you don't know what you are going to get. Most people I have spoken to have had side effects. Most with minor arm irritation but others have had slight fevers or belly aches to one person who said they were down and out with flu like symptoms for a week - but they were never sick enough to go to the hospital.

Overall, I feel that we are in a better place than a month ago. But it is a confusing time. The government has to balance positive news to keep hope alive with news that will keep everyone's guard up until everyone is vaccinated.

I do not envy our government officials.

What I do know is come April 15th, I will secure a vaccination appointment, continue wearing a mask, and continue being thankful for my health.

Take care and be safe.

Posts weekly.

Coronavirus Anniversay

It was exactly one year ago today, Friday the 13th of March, that coronavirus changed the world for me.

That morning, 50 background actors had just dressed in our 50's era costumes. The women had had their hair done (hair in curlers since the night before), men clean shaved and hair shellacked. We sat down for breakfast before a long day of filming when a production assistant hurried into holding and said, "That's it. It's wrap. The -- studio has just shut down all of their productions until further notice due to the coronavirus."

I later learned that every other studio had done the same thing that day. Actors, crew, craft services, musicians, and the like were now out of work.

Coronavirus had impacted me prior to this day: my wife's office had all employees working from home since the previous Monday; my son's school had effectively closed two days earlier; and I had been taking daily shopping trips looking for toilet paper. Oh, and the stock market had dropped over 30% over the previous three weeks.

But now, I was out of work. The mayor of Los Angeles effectively shutdown the city. Everything that used to be done indoors like haircuts, shopping, eating at restaurants, going to movies, museums, and working unless it was for an essential business was closed. It seemed like the only businesses a person could leave their house to visit were grocery stores and take out restaurants. We couldn't even visit family members who did not live in our dwelling. In Spain quarantining was so strict that some people used fake dogs so they could leave their house if only for five minutes a day.

Of course there was a valid reason for these precautions.

According to worldmeter.com, as of today, 2,658,861 people have died from coronavirus. In the United States, the number is 546,557. The total number of reported covid-19 cases in the U.S.is 30,043,115, or about 10% of the population.

Wow. Just, wow.

So where are we now one year later?

In a record amount of time, the world has created a vaccine, as our former President dubbed the effort, "Operation Warp Speed." Millions of people within the United States have been vaccinated. Our current President said that every American over 18 years of age will be able to make an appointment for the vaccine beginning May 1, 2021.

Grocery stores are fully stocked. The stock market is back to pre-coronavirus levels, as are gas prices, but thankfully, traffic is still not quite as bad as many people work from home now.

But things will not be back to the old normal any time soon.

Los Angeles still does not allow indoor dining, going to the movies, or exercising in an indoor gym, and my son still has to receive his education through distance learning as public high schools in Los Angeles County are still closed. However, it appears that Los Angeles will be lifting many of these restrictions soon. Cruise ships are still dead in the water with booking dates consistently being pushed back and international travel is still heavily restricted.

Yet, sets are open again, with everyone wearing masks, face shields, and some crew wearing full-on helmets. Coronavirus testing is a way of life whether in the mouth, nose, or what feels like the brain sometimes. My friend asked me the other day how many coronavirus test have I have had. The answer is 32, not including rapid tests on the days that I worked on set.

My wife and friend are still working from home as their companies' physical offices are closed and have told them that it will be at least summer before they can return to the office.

I will say that my family of 4 has definitely grown closer together by talking daily, eating meals together, working out together, watching t.v., etc. Life has slowed down. It has allowed me to focus on my goals and rebalance priorities in life. There is always a light somewhere, even during the darkest times.

It has been a year for the ages. I hope the next one is as well - but crazy happy instead of just plain crazy.

Take care and be safe.

Posts weekly.

Coronavirus - Rising Inflation?

Let me start by saying that I am not a financial advisor, so my thoughts about the coronavirus economy are based solely on my experience.

How is inflation related to covid? As the covid crisis eases with hundreds of thousands of people being vaccinated daily and restrictions on businesses loosening, the U.S. economy appears to be rebounding. Last week's unemployment numbers decreased and employment numbers increased.

With wages increasing and a new stimulus package on the way putting more money into the economy, the demands for goods and services will also theoretically increase. Where there is demand, there are price increases aka inflation.

If wages are increasing at the same rate as prices or slower, then inflation is not so bad. However, inflation has a bad reputation for many reasons. First, usually wages rise at a much slower rate than the prices on goods and services. This means that everyone is negatively affected. Second, wages rise much slower for low wage earners than high wage earners. For example, a 3% raise for a $30,000 a year worker is much different than a 3% raise for a $60,000 a year worker. Third, to combat inflation from getting out of control, governments will try to slow down the economy from overheating by raising interest rates. It encourages saving versus spending. Higher interest rates means that lending becomes more expensive. This means that housing prices will become cheaper, yet to buy a new house, you will have pay a higher interest rate. Business will be slower to expand operations because business loans will be more expensive. Now the hope for all this government induced pain is to crimp demand to a more "reasonable" level, so prices will stabilize or go down. That is the theory.

Someone once told me that the best analyzer of the market is not a business analyst who studied business, but a business analyst who studied psychology.

Last week the government did not raise rates, however the fear that they would raise rates caused the bond market and stock market to move significantly last week. In the case of the stock market, a serious drop.

I hope this post sheds a little light about why the stock market tanked last week with all the good news coming out about our economy rebounding from the coronavirus slump. I know, it seems counterintuitive, but as the coronavirus-era has showed us, life is full of curveballs.

Stay safe everyone.

Posts weekly.

Coronavirus - There Is Light In The Darkness

The last two weeks have been filled with good news regarding the fight against coronavirus. The LA Times reported that during the 7-day period from 2/26-2/19/21, 2000 new coronavirus cases were running at 2,000 a day vs early January when they were at 15,000 a day. Considering all the talk about variants - South African, UK, even Californian, it appears the vaccinations and herd immunity are overpowering the potential negative consequences.

And regarding the vaccinations, according to the CDC, 66.5 million vaccine doses have been administered in the US and 20.6 million people have received both doses. That is a lot people. It is so many in fact that according to ourworldindata.com, we now rank at # 4 in the world in terms of total doses per hundred people after Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom. Trust me, I was very surprised too after all the negative news we are hearing about supply shortages.

Finally, it appears that the FDA'S approval of Johnson and Johnson's 1-shot coronavirus vaccine is imminent. Not only will this add more vaccine supply to the world's epic fight, but needing only one shot will greatly improve the simplicity of giving the shot and getting people fully vaccinated more quickly.

All this is good news, especially for international travelers. I had mentioned months ago my "fear" that countries my start insisting on vaccine passports before allowing people to travel into their countries. One passport for people who are vaccinated, one for people who are not. Last week, the UK officially advocated to the G8 that vaccine passports should be a thing. Perhaps they want to pressure anti-vaxers into vaccinating.

Which leads me to, yes there are still issues with people protesting the virus, others refusing to take it, a few cases of sabotaging supplies, and an overall shortage of supplies, but the fight is going in the right direction. I am looking forward to putting the virus era behind us.

Take care and be safe.

Posts weekly.

Coronavirus - Gray-Area Vaccinations

I think someone in the government is reading my post. After last week's post, I read that 4 new super vaccination sites opened in Los Angeles County. Those were in the pipeline it turns out, but like so much of the coronavirus and coronavirus vaccination news, it is hard to find and hard to separate fact from fiction.

Last week, I said one way Israel is vaccinating so many people so quickly is that they have a standby line so that at the end of the day, if there is any vaccine left they put it in someone's arm rather than let it go to waste. The reason why there can be left over vaccine at the end of the day is because people cancel their appointments or don't show up and any vaccine defrosted has to be used within 6 hours or get dumped.

Two weeks ago, I heard someone had received the vaccine and did not fit in any of the priority categories, but since their company was in the industry and had vaccine left over they started inoculating the rest of their employees. Last week, I heard similar stories about other companies doing the same thing.

And then there was The Los Angeles Times story last week about "unofficial" standby lines where people are waiting outside clinics - sometimes all day - for the hope that there will be left over vaccine at the end of the day. Some people are lucky and actually receiving the vaccine, but most are not and go back and wait again the next day.

The Times' article commented about the wealthy jumping the vaccine priority queues to get the shots, but they are standing in the same "unofficial" lines anyone else could. And the 3 stories I heard had nothing to do with wealth in terms of who is receiving the "unused" vaccines. No one I have heard about has paid for early access to the vaccine. It was a more of who you know and where you worked.

There are moral and perhaps legal issues here, but in the end people are beginning to receive vaccinations at a much quicker rate by plying the gray area of vaccinations which in the end helps society as a whole as more people are vaccinated.

In the last week, new coronavirus cases in Los Angeles County have dropped from 39,000 a day to 23,004. Deaths are still at their unforgivable high levels, but hopefully that is due to the delayed correlation between new cases and the death rate and we will see a decrease in deaths soon.

There is hope.

Take care and be safe.

Posts weekly

Coronavirus - Acting Update

Los Angeles asked the entertainment industry to shutdown for 2 weeks because of the rapid spread of covid-19 sweeping the county. Friday, 318 deaths were reported along with 18,313 new cases in Los Angeles.

Through November, I only knew 1 person personally who had covid-19. Since Thanksgiving, I know 4 more people plus their family members who had become infected. I definitely understand the abundance of caution.

Still, asking yet another industry of thousands of people to stop working is tough. (Salons, gyms, servers, amusement parks, and others have already been forced to stop.) I recently had one job postpone a shoot for a month. Fortunately, I secured another gig to replace it. Yesterday, I saw more jobs posted for background actors to work than I had seen in a month. Still, Hollywood is super cautious. I imagine this is due to all the break outs on sets last December. One job posting said that they were going to pay a background actor to be tested 5 times in the next 9 days and to not work any of the 8 days prior to working a one day shoot. Another posting said that to be eligible, a background actor could not have worked any job in the past 4 weeks.

I am very glad Hollywood is taking precautions as nobody wants to get sick - but it takes a toll on the finances.

If only the coronavirus vaccine rollout was proceeding as smoothly as we had hoped. Only 6 million doses as of Friday have been injected across the country versus the 20 million the government had hoped for by 2020. NPR gave numerous reasons for the slow rollout, but whatever the reason, thousands of Americans are dying across the country daily because they have not been vaccinated.

I can only hope vaccination process speeds up for all our sakes and that Hollywood's more strigent precautions are effective in keeping its employees safe in the meantime.

Take care and be safe. Posts weekly

Coronavirus Hope and Disaster

Hope - according to the New York Times the vaccine has been administered to 1.9 million people in the United States as of Saturday.

Disaster - over 330,000 people in the U.S. have died from covid-19. That is more people than the entire city of Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, or St. Louis. It is reported that Los Angeles now has 0 beds available in its ICU and the city has instituted a 10-day quarantine on any travelers visiting or returning to the city.

Coronavirus bomb exploding or its last gasp before being extinguished.

It is as if the virus knows there is a vaccine and is making a last stand to infect as many people as possible on its way out.

I am very fortunate that no one in my family has been infected with the coronavirus. However, there are four people I know along with their family members that have contracted coronavirus within the last two weeks. That is scary close.

Fortunately, I have no condition or situation that would make me high risk for complications. However, that also means I will be last in line for the vaccine unless actors are classified as essential workers. The USA Today said I should be able to receive the vaccine by summer. That seems like forever with infection rates soaring and people around me getting sick. 

Jim Cramer from Mad Money feels there will be a glut of vaccine stocks by the spring as new vaccine manufacturers get their product approved by the FDA. I hope that he is right. First, I do not want to get covid-19. Second, I fear that many countries, states, and employers may require a person to have proof of having been vaccinated in order to travel, go to work, or go to school.

Currently, in Hollywood, everyone has to be tested before they can work on set. The big studios have set up testing facilities for cast and crew and pay them to get tested. However, some smaller productions are asking actors to show proof of a covid-19 test in order to employ you but require you to get tested on your own - unpaid and unreimbursed. I have missed two job opportunities because of this in 2020. 

Hawaii requires a negative coronavirus test in order to visit the state or be subject to a 10-day quarantine.

I foresee a time in the near future where productions will only hire people if they have been vaccinated allowing production to avoid the expense of testing and at the same time ensuring the safety of their sets. I understand this from a business perspective, but it is frustrating for those who can't get the vaccine.

Fortunately, we are not there with yet with vaccine work screenings. Hopefully, Cramer's prediction of a vaccine glut by Spring will come true and everyone who wants to be vaccinated can be without delay.

Take care, be safe, and I hope everyone has a happy and healthy New Year!

Posts Tuesdays

My Dark Coronavirus Christmas Carol

When I read that a visit from Santa Claus infected 75 people with covid last week, I knew that it was time to share my dark-humored Christmas carol: The 12 Days of Covid. Works best if you sing it rather than just read it.

On the 1st day of covid my true love gave to me, a bat in a Chinese cave

On the 2nd day of covid my true love gave to me, two bottles of bleach

On the 3rd day of covid my true love gave to me, three new tweets

On the 4th day of covid my true love gave to me, four new vaccines 

On the 5th day of covid my true love gave to me, five types of wipes 

On the 6th day of covid my true love gave to me, six stocks a-soaring

On the 7th day of covid my true love gave to me, seven waiters a-swearing

On the 8th day of covid my true love gave to me, eight kids a-zooming

On the 9th day of covid my true love gave to me, nine states closing

On the 10th day of covid my true love gave to me, ten teachers hiding

On the 11th day of covid my true love gave to me, eleven doctors praying

On the 12th day of covid my true love gave to me, twelve nurses crying

Take care and be safe.

Posts weekly

Coronavirus Vaccine Is Here - Right?

The end is near…in a good way.

The coronavirus vaccine has arrived!

Actually, not here in the US - but in other parts of the world. England vaccinated its first person with the Pfizer vaccine on Tuesday. Bahrain has also approved its use.

So when do we get the shot in the U.S.? Can I go to Spain next summer after canceling the trip last summer?

Looking at timelines, I was surprised that it takes approximately 30 days to be protected against the virus from the time you take the first shot. The two part shot has to be taken 3 weeks apart. I did not realize it would take that long. Considering the first to be vaccinated are healthcare workers, the elderly, and people at high risk, it could be well in to the summer before I can get my first shot. There goes Spain.

Looking on the bright side, by the time I am vaccinated any side effects should be ironed out.

It also means that means next summer will be a time for more awesome road trips. I have always wanted to drive across country. Time rack up those free hotel night rewards!

As I finished writing this post, I saw a headline that a FDA panel just approved the Pfizer vaccine for US use. Let the countdown to my vaccination begin.

Take care and be safe.

Posts weekly (usually Tuesday)

A Coronavirus Thanksgiving

I gathered with family outside my immediate household for Thanksgiving. Even with all the dire warnings, I did it.

There were 7 of us (plus a dog). We all wore masks and ate outside never entering the house except to use the restroom. I even wore gloves when I carved the turkey.

But...

I did see numerous Facebook pictures of family and friends from the holidays (and sometimes large groups of family) not wearing masks.

We all hear about the horror stories of entire families coming down with covid and some people dying, yet people are still gathering and still gathering without masks.

I have one family member who refuses to wear a mask because it does not feel good. I have a friend who says "they" had covid during the summer so "they" can't get it again and are no longer contagious so they don't need to wear a mask. They do have a lingering cough. 

It is hard for me to judge others when I was one of the culprits who visited family. Now I know how Governor Newsome feels for going to a dinner party while telling people to stay home and basically live in isolation.

Fortunately, I had three coronavirus tests last week for work and they all came back negative. My family dodged the proverbial bullet.

I think about single people and the elderly. Is a single person living on their own really not supposed to talk to any friends or family in person for another three to six months until a vaccine is easily accessible? What are they supposed to do at Christmas, New Years, Valentine's Day?

The dating scene must really suck right now. 

And if a person has elderly parents, how many more Thanksgivings and Christmas' will they have with them? What if this could be their last one? Can they really not visit?

These are tough decisions we all must make, balancing the risk versus the reward.

I hope that you and your families are healthy and are able to navigate the holidays safely.

Posts weekly

Coronavirus The Fall of The Suit, The Rise of The Sock

The suit's best friend today is the actor. The entertainment industry is one industry that still requires its workers to dress up in suits and ties.  I have gotten by the last two years with my early 2000-era black suit but figured it was time to update my game and add some color. 

So I donned my coronavirus mask and drove to Nordstrom Rack. As I stepped off the escalator to the second floor,  I was surprised by the lack of suits. Prior to Covid, a good chunk of the second floor of the men's section was dedicated to suits, sport coats, and business wear. Today, only a small section in the middle of the store was dedicated to business wear and the once illustrious (and potentially expensive) suits were confined to a small section of the back wall. 

How fashion has changed. 

Lawyers, bankers, corporate office types once needed to own multiple suits that fit well. This goes for men and women. They were the symbol of professionalism, status, and style.

My wife's company said they would be lucky if they returned to the office next year. A lawyer I know has not been in the office for months.

So does anyone need a suit if they are working from home? Even if you have to dress up for a Zoom call, why would you need a suit? A sport coat, shirt, tie, and shorts would suffice. Sport coats are a lot cheaper than suits. And on Zoom, it is hard to tell the difference between a $60 clearance sport coat at Nordstrom Rack and a $1000 suit unless you have an amazing webcam and you are doing a (very unlikely) full body shot.

And shoes? Let's not even talk about how even more inconsequential the need is for multiple pairs of nice dress shoes let alone one pair if you are never in the office.

How are clothing manufacturers staying in business during the coronavirus epidemic?

The answer must be socks.

The evidence lay before me. A section of the store where suits once hung was now an expanded sock selection. Some socks were quite colorful. There were ankle socks, thick socks, Christmas socks, and others with amazing designs. Obviously, if people are staying home and winter is coming, socks will be one of the most important clothing items when a person is on that all important Zoom board meeting.

Perhaps coronavirus was the tool of the socks to overthrow the rule of the suits. 

But fear not, suits, a coronavirus vaccine is on the way, creating a pathway for your return to elite status level. And just remember, actors will always need you to create the fictitious worlds where suits are worn daily.  Seriously, only in Hollywood movies is business casual not the norm in an office.

My search for a suit continues.

Take care and be safe.

Posts weekly (target date Tuesday)

Coronavirus New Curfew - Ridiculous!

I was annoyed when I heard about the new statewide curfew ordered by Newsome that went into effect this weekend from 10 pm to 5 am.

People said, "John calm down. The only businesses it affects are the bars. It's the young people who don't wear masks and get drunk and are not cautious." When I stood outside my friend's bar in Oregon, the majority of people inside were older men. There are many types of bars

I said, "Watch this is just the beginning."

Lockdowns and curfews create anxiety. Trader Joes had a line half-way around the block this morning. Yes - around the block. My Pavilions had me wait outside for the first time in months. Toilet paper and paper towels were gone.

Today, LA County announced all outside dining will be closed effective Wednesday. Only take-out will be allowed.

Now waiters, hostesses, and bartenders have all just lost their jobs right before the holidays. Merry Christmas.

Many dining establishments have applied for permits and remodeled to provide outdoor dining or to provide more outdoor dining space. I have seen the changes in my neighborhood on my daily walks. Concrete barriers on the street to create dining areas, awnings installed, heat lamps, etc. 

California Adventure just opened its main street this weekend for shopping and dining. So much for those recently hired employees.

Someone asked me, what should we do.

I said:

• First, tell everyone to wear a mask when you are not eating.
• Second, enforce what outdoor dining is. Look at that joke of the French Laundry where Newsome was eating. Three walls enclosed by plastic. That is not outdoor dining. I have seen more and more restaurants close-in their outdoor dining spaces.
• Third, enforce the six-foot distance rule between tables in these outdoor areas. I have seen food areas getting more and more cramped as restaurants try to accommodate more diners.

But do not close all of these businesses down. Enforce the rules, so that the ones who do play by them don't have to suffer. That is how government can keep us safe. Governor, don't go the French Laundry, see the rules being abused, and laugh it all away.

I believe LA County will ban all indoor retail shopping after Black Friday weekend. If they did it this week, there would be a riot, not necessarily by the customers but by all the businesses that just stocked up on instore inventory. Imagine the financial catastrophe if California did shutdown all in-person shopping for the holidays. That would truly put the nail in the coffin of small businesses in the state.

Can't get this at take out

My Saturday in Julian was great. 90% of the people wore masks. Everyone kept their distance.

I do not understand what was wrong with the other 10% not wearing masks. Seriously, by that 10% not wearing their masks, they just cost all Californians the opportunity to eat out or get a drink.

A family member said they were walking outside near a hospital and a nurse walked right by them with their mask in their hand - not on their face. If heads of the CMA are at a large dinner party with the governor and nurses are walking around not wearing masks, perhaps I can see why the 10% don't take our "leaders" and medical establishment seriously.

But, if a small group of people continue to refuse to follow the three basic rules, we will not go back to a relatively normal life for a long time: wear a mask, social distance, and wash hands often. 

Take care and be safe.

Posts weekly.

Coronavirus Vaccine's Impact

On 11/9, Pfizer announced that their covid vaccine was found to be 90% effective in a clinical trail of 44,000 test subjects. 

What does this mean?

The stock market soared 1500 points first thing Monday morning.

Royal Caribbean Cruises stock ended up 25% while Zoom dropped 13%.

I think that Pfizer's news is wonderful, especially considering the massive outbreaks happening in Europe and across the U.S. (The U.S. is tallying over 100,00 new cases a day).  Deadline reported that 3 entertainment productions have closed this week due to positive COVID tests and I know of at least 2 last week. One of these my son was going to work on and I was scheduled to work another. We dodge the bullet on those shows.

The world knows that we sorely need a vaccine, hence the stock market jump.

However, the exuberance party was short lived as Tuesday the market ended up only 262 points and it is down today 108 points. 

There are two issues.

The first is time. If Pfizer passes all the recommended safety tests, it could be June before the vaccine is made widely available to the public. That is a long time from now. 8 months. I just realized, tomorrow 11/13/20 is exactly 8 months since Los Angeles went into lockdown mode - Friday the 13th of March. 

Trivia question: who said, "Beware the Ides of March"? (Close enough to the 15th to make it relevant. Answer below.)

Second, who is going to get vaccinated? Many people I speak to are scared of getting a vaccine whether it is for covid or any other disease. Safety is their main issue. Can the government force people to get vaccinated? Can the government or private businesses deny services like access to public school or Disneyland or a cruise ship to unvaccinated individuals?

In the movie Children Of Men, a vaccine to stop a deadly plague made everyone infertile. That is a chilling worst case scenario. Only in movies right?

But if people don't get vaccinated, how long will the economies of the world economy continue to be at risk of future shutdowns? Months, years? I read that New York is looking at closing its schools again. Los Angeles' have never opened. 

For now, all we can do is social distance, wear a mask, and keep washing those hands. We have to for at least for the next 8 months.

Take care and be safe.

Posts Weekly (Aiming for Tuesdays)

Trivia answer: The soothsayer to Julius Cesar in William Shakespeare's play.

Coronavirus Escape

Camping last weekend reaffirmed my belief that life is still awesome during the coronavirus epidemic.

During the weekend we hiked, kayaked, took silly pictures, built cairns and campfires, told stories, and had great meals in the beautiful outdoors. 

The only time I was concerned was when we sat down with our dinner at the outdoor patio of a restaurant and the table had not been wiped down. My wife put some sanitizer on the table and we wiped it down ourselves. Better safe than sorry. 

People wore masks when they were around others. The cafes, stores, and kayak rental shop enforced wearing them. People in the campground wore them when they were close to others i.e. at the bathroom.

We had an amazing time. One of the best things was the lack of a tv so there was no news about politics, protests, or coronavirus. 

So enjoy yourselves, just apply the 3 basic rules: use a mask, social distance, and wash your hands. 

Posts Tuesdays

Coronavirus A Step Backwards

Since my post a week ago, there has been little positive news on the coronavirus front. The US had one day of 85,000 new cases and another of 80,000.  Worse than these rising statistics is an article by CNBC stating that a study found coronavirus antibodies declining quickly after someone has recovered from the virus raising questions about herd immunity. 

Regarding vaccine news one poll reported that less than 50% of Americans would get vaccinated for the virus if a vaccine became available. In Russia, their much trumpeted vaccine released in August is being rolled out at a much slower place than originally claimed. Cases are rising in Russia.

I mentioned last week how the death rate had been rising at a much slower rate than the infection rate, but Wisconsin and Florida each had a day of over 60 coronavirus-related deaths in a single day.

European rates - infections, deaths, hospitalizations, are all spiking, but so is the anger against new rounds of safety restrictions. Protests are breaking out in Northern Italy and Spain.

Then two days ago, Walmart's CEO said customers are starting to stock up again. Please no more toilet paper shortages.

Taking my daily walk yesterday, I remarked to my wife how cold it was. It was 59 degrees at 9 am. That is winter weather in Los Angeles. My wife said she is going to break out the thermals and gloves tomorrow.  My boys have asked me to unbox the space heaters.

How does the cold relate to covid?

In Los Angeles, you can only eat outside at restaurants and workout outside (inside gyms are still closed). As it gets colder, people will not want to eat outdoors. People will huddle together indoors or more restaurants will close.

To give an example of how easily the virus can spread check out what happened on a recent set:

Each person had to take a rapid covid test before they left their car and joined the crew. A crew member asked where the woman went that was in the car next to mine.

His partner said, "She had to go to the restroom."

The crew member rolled his eyes, "Her test came back inconclusive."

Once she returned, they tested her again, and then sanitized the restroom while they waited for the results. Fortunately, the second test came back negative.

Should she have been forced to stay in her car until her results came back? Probably. But when you have to go, you have to go. Tricky situation.

If she had been covid positive and someone had followed her into the restroom before it was cleaned…14 day quarantines for everyone?

Take care and be safe.

Posts Tuesdays

Coronavirus When Will Disneyland Reopen

That is the million or billion dollar question for hordes of Southern California Magic Castle fans. It is also one of the questions of the 28,000 Disney employees that were recently laid off.

According to CNET, Governor Newsome said Disneyland and similar large theme parks can only open once their county reaches the yellow tier of infections. This means that no more than 1 new case of covid per 100,000 people living in that county. Currently, Orange County is in the red tier at 4.6 new cases per 100,000 people. Once Orange Country reaches that yellow level, then Disneyland can reopen, but park capacity will be capped at 25%.

Disney forcefully rejected that notion. All of their theme parks around the world are open from China to Paris to Florida. Only California remains closed.

The Governor's fear is that large theme parks with tens of thousands of visitors would act like super spreader locations like the week-long 365,000-person Sturgis Motorcycle Rally last August that did spread infections across the US.

So what happened when Walt Disney World (WDW) opened in July?

According to Eric Clinton president of one of the unions for cast members as reported by CinemaBlend, said very few if any cast members have had a work-related coronavirus infection at WDW since the reopening. 

Attendance is down due to limits on attendance. However, the Orlando Sentinel said on a recent day 19,000 people visited WDW down from a typical 60,000. Still 19,000 tourists plus cast members are a lot of people all in one place together. 

WDW has instituted a number of wellness measures including temperature screenings, wearing masks, enforcing social distancing, and limiting capacity. Fireworks, parades, and other activities have been curtailed. 

Those few commonsense safety changes seem to be keeping coronavirus in check. It all goes back to wearing a mask, social distancing, and sanitizing. The rule of 3  once again appears to be effective in keeping the virus at bay in yet another big venue. 

As I have said all along, I am personally concerned that a vaccine, if there is one, will not be ready until well into next year. Another vaccine trial (the third) has been suspended after a trial subject died in Brazil. If there is no safe vaccine for the next year or two, how long will California remain shutdown? Schools closed? Theaters shuttered? Winter is when flu season is the worst.

I know many people who have stated that even if there is a vaccine, they will not get it. 

The US just reported a 70,000-new-infection case day. The virus is not going away anytime soon.

It appears that California, at least Orange and Los Angeles Counties, will remain shutdown through at least the end of the year. 

So my musketeers, you will have to make the long journey to the other side of the country to ride a boat on the Pirates of the Caribbean before 2020 ends, maybe even 2021. Crazy, right?

Take care and be safe.

Posts Tuesday

 

Coronavirus Cases Up Deaths Down

Coronavirus infection numbers are going up worldwide.

India had over 60,000 new cases reported from 10/10 to 10/11. Europe is having a tsunami of new infections. As a whole, the continent reported 100,000 new infections last Friday with France having the largest increase - 20,000. The Spanish Prime Minister instituted a partial 15-day lockdown on Madrid after the city had an increase of 12,788 new covid cases. That is three times as many as Los Angeles. 

Speaking of Los Angeles, we had 970 new cases and 3 deaths yesterday.  This is compared to one of Los Angeles' worst reporting days - July 14 when there were 4,244 new cases and 73 deaths. 

This leads me to my second point, the number of deaths per the number of infections is down in the U.S.

According to worldometers.info, the worst daily death toll in the U.S. was April 21, with 2,748 deaths. The last day the U.S. reported over 1,000 coronavirus deaths in one day was on September 23 at 1,116. On October 10, the US reported 723. 

While the deaths have dropped by 2/3rds, unfortunately our infection rate remains high: April 21 26,875, September 23 41,868, October 10 54,235. It's not all bad. The worst day was July 24 with 78,893.

So if we look at new cases vs deaths for each of those 3 days: April 21 10.22%; September 23 2.67%; and October 10 .92%.

The good news (although none of this is really good news) is that more people are surviving who become infected. The bad news is over 50,000 people a day are still being infected with the Coronavirus across the country.

Whether the factor for decreasing death rate is medical professionals being more familiar with treating the disease, the disease becoming less virulent, or new medicines, it is good to know that if you do become infected, your chance of survival is pretty good.

In conclusion, the coronavirus is still running rampant. Even though people have a better chance of surviving an infection today than they did a couple of months ago, many people report long term mental and physical effects during what can be a lengthy recovery. Take care and be safe.

Here is an interesting side note I learned while I was researching this blog post:

Per John Hopkins University, the country with the most deaths per 100,000 people is not the U.S. We are number 6 even with the improved statistics above. Nor is it India, Brazil, or the United Kingdom. The dark title goes to Peru. To put their numbers in perspective, the U.S. mortality rate is 65.64 per 100,000, Peru is almost twice that at 104.11. Why?

The Associated Press reported that Peru's high numbers were due to using coronavirus rapid antibody tests the Peruvian government purchased from China. 

The government took this option because the test kits were cheaper and samples did not have to be sent to a lab to determine the results. It sounded like a good option, unfortunately it was too good to be true.

First, antibody tests are tests that determine whether or not a patient's body had developed antibodies to defeat the virus rather than a test that would determine if they were currently infected. The problem is that it can take days before a person's body develops antibodies to fight the virus. When these rapid antibody tests came back negative, patients would be sent home or let into work or school under the assumption they were not infected.

The other two issues with these tests were that some providers administered the test improperly and it was learned that many kits were faulty. 

Sad.

Posts Tuesdays