Coronavirus Baby Boom or Bust?

Many jokes were made early on that the stay-at-home rules were going cause a huge spike in births 9 months from now.  I mean couples, wed and unwed, would be together constantly and there would be little in the way to prevent them from finding time for love. 

I mean, eventually you have to put down your phone if nothing more than to give your eyes a rest.

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Now there are reports that the birth rate may actually decline significantly. The Brookings Institute said we could see "300,000 to 500,000 fewer births next year." (link to full report at end of post)

Why?

They based their numbers on birth rates during the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and the Spanish Flu of 1918. During the Great Recession, the birth rate fell from 69.1 births per 1000 women age 15 to 44 in 2007 to 63 in 2012. They said that is a decrease of 400,000 births.

During times of economic uncertainty in the U.S., people tend to put off having children due to financial worries. Seeing large credit card bills  or having a spouse laid off or hours cut tends to put a damper on the romantic mood.

Whereas during robust economic times, the opposite is true. Getting that bonus or new job may lead to a sense of elation and desire to share it with someone. Also, financial security helps a person rest at night.

I think about my neighbors with their new child who have not been able to hire a babysitter since the coronavirus because of contagion fears. One parent has to be with the child at all times. And what about all of the parents who had kids in school or day care? Once those institutions and businesses closed, parents either had to leave their kids home alone or work from home. If you are a couple who has just been wed, you might be scared off having kids right away.

That's even if you are able to get married. With the stay-at-home orders, many weddings have been put on hold. We are going on over three months in most states where weddings, let alone big weddings, have not been held. I was recently on a zoom meeting and a participant related that after two months of delay, she finally got married. They had a zoom meeting with the city clerk's office to be officially married. Sometime in the future they will have the church wedding.  But what about all the others who are just waiting?

Also with fewer people dating, there is a significant decrease in unplanned pregnancies. 

How does this affect everyone else?

Fewer babies mean fewer future workers which means less taxes which means less funding for government programs like social security, medicare, infrastructure, department of defense, etc. 

It is no wonder governments want to ensure they ease the economic pain as much as possible whether through trillion dollar stimulus packages or propping up the stock market or telling everyone everything is okay.

Still, I agree with the Brookings report on a forthcoming baby bust versus a boom. The government can only do so much to create the right mood.

Click here for the >> Brookings Report

Take care and be safe.

Posts Tuesday and Wednesday