Coronavirus Baby Boom or Bust?

Many jokes were made early on that the stay-at-home rules were going cause a huge spike in births 9 months from now.  I mean couples, wed and unwed, would be together constantly and there would be little in the way to prevent them from finding time for love. 

I mean, eventually you have to put down your phone if nothing more than to give your eyes a rest.

Freeimages.com

Now there are reports that the birth rate may actually decline significantly. The Brookings Institute said we could see "300,000 to 500,000 fewer births next year." (link to full report at end of post)

Why?

They based their numbers on birth rates during the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and the Spanish Flu of 1918. During the Great Recession, the birth rate fell from 69.1 births per 1000 women age 15 to 44 in 2007 to 63 in 2012. They said that is a decrease of 400,000 births.

During times of economic uncertainty in the U.S., people tend to put off having children due to financial worries. Seeing large credit card bills  or having a spouse laid off or hours cut tends to put a damper on the romantic mood.

Whereas during robust economic times, the opposite is true. Getting that bonus or new job may lead to a sense of elation and desire to share it with someone. Also, financial security helps a person rest at night.

I think about my neighbors with their new child who have not been able to hire a babysitter since the coronavirus because of contagion fears. One parent has to be with the child at all times. And what about all of the parents who had kids in school or day care? Once those institutions and businesses closed, parents either had to leave their kids home alone or work from home. If you are a couple who has just been wed, you might be scared off having kids right away.

That's even if you are able to get married. With the stay-at-home orders, many weddings have been put on hold. We are going on over three months in most states where weddings, let alone big weddings, have not been held. I was recently on a zoom meeting and a participant related that after two months of delay, she finally got married. They had a zoom meeting with the city clerk's office to be officially married. Sometime in the future they will have the church wedding.  But what about all the others who are just waiting?

Also with fewer people dating, there is a significant decrease in unplanned pregnancies. 

How does this affect everyone else?

Fewer babies mean fewer future workers which means less taxes which means less funding for government programs like social security, medicare, infrastructure, department of defense, etc. 

It is no wonder governments want to ensure they ease the economic pain as much as possible whether through trillion dollar stimulus packages or propping up the stock market or telling everyone everything is okay.

Still, I agree with the Brookings report on a forthcoming baby bust versus a boom. The government can only do so much to create the right mood.

Click here for the >> Brookings Report

Take care and be safe.

Posts Tuesday and Wednesday

Coronavirus Cases Soaring

At the beginning of June I felt optimism that the worst of the coronavirus was over. Businesses were opening across the U.S. and around the world, the stock market was rebounding, and infection rates were dropping. I mean even Disneyland announced that they were reopening July 15.

Then on May 28, Korea started closing down after a new outbreak. On June 16, China announced Beijing was instituting a soft lock down after another outbreak, halting flights and closing some businesses. Then states in the U.S. that had instituted strict stay-at-home policies, like California, started to noticed an uptick alongside those that had less restrictive policies like Arizona, Texas, and Florida. By mid-June, California was so bad that last week everyday broke a new record of new infections: 3,000 Monday, 5,000 Tuesday, 7,000 Wednesday, then back to 5,000 Thursday.

Yes, a large part of the increase is due to increased testing, but by no means all.

ICUs are starting to fill up again, a definite sign more testing is not the only cause of the spike.

And here is the kicker, the people that are heading to the ICU and make up the majority of the new cases are young adults. According to The Wall Street Journal, 60% of new cases in California are under the age of 49. In Arizona, 60% of new cases are those under 45. When I take my daily walks most people are wearing masks. At least 9 out of 10 people who aren't wearing masks fit that under age 45 category.

Just like a maskless 20-something strutting down the street past a masked elderly couple. I guess he was proud he wasn't wearing a mask to show how "invincible" he was. 

If the spouse of the elderly couple catches coronavirus from him and later dies, can the young man be charged with negligence. According to Wikipedia, the four elements to a negligence case are: duty, breach, proximate causation, and injury. Holy moly, are we going to see a slew of lawsuits against individuals who aren't wearing masks and spread the coronavirus?

My neighbor has not had a babysitter since the coronavirus hit and has been working from home.  But, walking through my local park yesterday, I saw two nannies sitting together on a large blanket with 5 kids. There was maybe a four-foot gap between the two ladies, but none between the kids. Hmm. 

The Wall Street Journal said Texas and Arizona are attributing the rise in cases to the recent reopening of bars and restaurants. The Texas Tribune said the Governor shut down the bars in the state on Friday as intensive care units are being flooded and they are contemplating plans to treat patients at convention centers and stadiums.

A month ago, most people saw a light at the end of the tunnel. Now it looks like we are going back inside.

 

Financially what does this mean? Disneyland has delayed reopening, Apple is shutting down stores, the stock market is dropping, and states are barring other states' residents from visiting them like New York and New Jersey. So, more layoffs, more people on unemployment, and the bonus of less traffic. 

Will the entertainment industry postpone their reopening? I am seeing fewer gigs on the industry job boards. Even fewer than last month. And here I am only talking about non-union gigs as union gigs have been non-existant.

As I mentioned during the last post, Dr. Fauci complained that people keep talking about the 2nd round when we are still solidly in the first round.

I spoke to a young cop on the street a month ago while I waited for my take out. His partner wore a mask but he didn't. He said it was a personal choice.

Hopefully, everyone makes the right choice so we can get rid of this virus once and for all.

Posts Saturday and Tuesday

Travel During the Great Coronavirus Reopening

Cities, states, and even countries are reopening to tourists. Not all, but many. 

On June 15, most European countries opened their borders to residents of its member countries. Spain waited until June 21. And on July 1, the Europeans will tentatively open their borders to international tourist for the first time in four months.

There are stipulations like a country's infection rates have to be held in check before they allow tourists from that country. Unfortuantely, the U.S. does not meet that criteria. Similarly, in the U.S. there are certain states and areas that are blocking residents of other states from visiting. Key West authorities arrested a woman and sent her back to mainland Florida for trying to visit. New Mexico said they love tourist, just not right now.

And cruise lines? Oh, the poor cruise lines. Spain has said no cruise ships can dock in any Spanish port for the foreseeable future. Norwegian cruise lines said all cruises are suspended at least through September. That is the entire summer season. Although they are making exceptions for the Pacific Northwest. And a week ago, the first Danube-Rhine river cruise made it without mishap.

https://www.cruisetradenews.com/first-european-river-cruise-resumes-sailings-post-coronavirus-recovery/

However, Greece welcomed one of its first international flights a couple of weeks ago from Qatar and 12 people on board tested positive for Coronavirus.

We are not out of the woods yet.

Last week, I cancelled my family's 3-week Spain trip that was to depart July 8. I poured over news reports daily grasping for an inkling of hope regarding Europe's reopening. But with a potential quarantine for travelers, U.S. infection rates increasing, the need for reciprocal travel arrangements (the U.S. is still blocking travel from Europe), and constant flight changes to a point where I would have to literally time travel backwards three hours to make a connection, I figured it was time to call it.

Fortunately, I was able to cancel everything and get full refunds except one hostel in Spain. Somehow I overlooked that property's no cancellation policy. If that is all it costs me, I am ok with that. 

Now to make new plans. Isn't that half the fun?

Take care.

Posts Tuesday and Saturday

Coronavirus The World of Masks

Masks - the new "must have" in fashion. Almost everyone wears one now and almost every store and designer sells them. 

Whether it is Kim Kardashian at $8 a mask under her Skims line to the person down the street selling them on Etsy for $4 each to Supreme with their $120 mask.

People are hungry for masks. I remember a friend suggested that I buy a sewing machine and start selling masks online when the coronavirus hit. I laughed it off. I am not laughing now.

I bought a pair from Vons, my sister from the Disney store, and my mom a mask from Australia. People are even giving masks as presents. On Mother's Day, my wife was given a mask from the chic retailer Johnny Was. 

Some masks have adjustable straps, some have wires over the nose, some are cotton, some neoprene, some have coffee filters, the variations seem endless.

Then I heard about a trikini - a mask that matches your bikini. Serious check it out (photo from article):

https://www.nbcdfw.com/entertainment/the-scene/meet-the-trikini-a-bikini-with-a-matching-face-mask/2374743/

Tiziana Scamuzzo/Elexia Beachwear

Most state and local governments require you to wear them, like California, and probably your boss too. Dr. Fauci told the Wall Street Journal the other day, "People keep talking about a second wave, we're still in the first wave."

In Hollywood, everyone on set will have to wear a mask until cameras are rolling at which point only those on screen can remove their masks. 

It seems like masks will be a high demand fashion accessory for quite awhile. And it appears suppliers big and small are meeting the demand.

Now if only the paper towel manufactures could do the same.

Which brings me to the next question. How many masks should a person have? I have four, plus two bandanas and another face covering. My wife has 1, plus two face coverings. My mom 7.

If only I had purchased that sewing machine…

I remember my boys years ago pointing out a woman who walked around our neighborhood wearing  a face shield and mask. How strange, I thought. Now I know she was just ahead of her time.

I hope that everyone is doing well and is enjoying their stylish masks.

Take care.

Posts Tuesday and Saturday

Coronavirus Top 10 Accomplishments

Today is the 3-month anniversary of the Los Angeles coronavirus shutdown and I realized that I had accomplished many goals and improved my life in many ways during this time.

1. Improved My Health - dropped 4 pounds during the coronavirus by walking daily as well as using the free Nike Training Club app and Barry's Instagram lessons. Still haven't lost the inches though.
2. Reconnected with Wife - as she said to a coworker, our daily walks and talks are like we are dating again. Prior to the quarantine, we rarely saw each other due to work, church, and school commitments.
3.  Painted Bathroom - something I had wanted to do for years. Who knew it would take me 5 days, but I did it! 
4.  Improved Cooking - I have always loved to cook, but rarely had time due to work and always being on the go in my personal life. Most amazing dessert I made - strawberry pie. Most interesting learning experience deconstructing a turkey and turning it into 3 different recipes.
5.  Grew a Coronavirus Beard - I had never grown my beard out for 6 weeks. It came in full and my wife and mother lamented when I shaved it off. I needed to as I was booked for an acting job and I was beardless in my headshot photo. 
6.  Decluttered My Bedroom - things were stacked in corners and on dressers. It is now a room of peace and tranquility (except for the barking dog next door) where I meditate three times a week.
7.  Explored Neighborhood - The walks with my wife for the last 3 months have allowed us to explore ours and surrounding neighborhoods finding amazing stores, restaurants, gardens, homes, and even a hidden staircase. 
8.  Completed Level 4 of the Presentation Mastery Pathway for Toastmasters. Toastmasters is a group dedicated to public speaking and I am now one level away from completing the pathway.
9. Created Porch Garden - the couple of plants on the porch became a garden with aloe vera, scallions, bell peppers, sage and host of other plants.
10. A Talent Manager reached out to me to see if we would be a good fit for each other. It wasn't, but I felt that having someone express an interest in representing me based upon my look and my work was a big accomplishment. 

 What is on your list?

Coronavirus Lights, Camera, Action!

I worked on my first commercial yesterday since the coronavirus shutdown on Friday, May 13th.

California and L.A. County approved TV and Film production to resume on June 12.

Along with the approval came a host of new safety guidelines. According to the Hollywood Reporter this includes regular testing, symptom monitoring, staggered meal times, hand sanitizer, masks, and other measures.

On set yesterday, the crew and cast size were small. Three crew and one cast member (me), in one location and the same crew and three cast members in the second location. Everyone wore masks. The cast only removed their masks right before filming. Hand sanitizer was readily available and food was served on individual plates handed out by the cook wearing gloves and mask. It was very exciting as we were all ready to take that first step into production in the current coronavirus era.

An fellow actor asked if I had to sign a coronavirus waiver as a rumor had been circling that cast and crew would have to sign one in order to work. The UFC made all of its fighters and anyone who has worked their events over the last month sign one. I did not have to.

New essential acting tools.

While I was very happy to work Friday, I have read a number of reports that crew and cast sizes will be reduced for the foreseeable future. Stands filled with spectators like in Ford vs. Ferrari, mob scenes like in Penny Dreadful, concerts, high school pep rallies, protests, speeches, all of these types of scenes will not be filmed for a while or if they are, very differently. There is discussion about using CGI to create people in the background, more tiling, and reusing people for the same shot just using different camera angles or changing wardrobe.

Changes are a part of life. Being prepared is the key.

I am thankful that I was fortunate enough to work on the first day TV and film productions resumed. I hope that it is a sign of good things to come.

I hope that things are looking up wherever you may be.

Take care.

Posts Tuesday and Saturday

Coronavirus Hair For Hollywood

For the first time in 3 months, I got a hair cut. Yes, barbershops have reopened in Los Angeles.

The official date was May 26, but I held out until yesterday when work necessitated a clean up.

I needed to film a self-tape to apply for a commercial and knew that "The Old Man and the Sea" look had

Hair 3 weeks ago. Even longer before yesterday's cut.

to go.

Also, my calling service texted me that Governor Newsom and the entertainment industry came to an agreement on opening that will take effect June 12.

It was time to get serious.

I walked into my local barbershop to set an appointment for later in the day, but they were filled until the following evening. It seemed like a lot of people were itching to get rid of their shaggy, coronavirus looks. Seeing my crestfallen face (or my desperate need), they said that they could squeeze me in since their first appointment of the day had yet to show up.

Oh, the pressure. I really wanted to shower first, since I had just finished painting my bathroom the previous day (a long overdue coronavirus project), meaning that I hadn't showered in two days. But the barber didn't seem to mind and sometimes you just have to take the opportunity when it presents itself.

So I got my first hair cut wearing a face mask.

I showed her my Instagram picture of "my look" before the stay-at-home order and asked her to replicate it. She seemed undeterred and began shaping the wild hair.

It was such a pleasant experience, not just the haircut, but also the conversation with someone other than my immediate family members.

Once I got home, I debated shaving off the beard, trimming the beard, or going for a goatee. My wife and mother wanted me to keep the beard, but they were overridden. As I looked in the bathroom mirror, I received a call from a casting director. He wanted to book me on a commercial this week. Talk about timing. His answer regarding the beard, you don't have one in the photos we have in your profile. Enough said. Off went the beard

Quite a change if you ask me. What do you think?

Take care.

Posts Tuesday and Saturday

Coronavirus, Protest, Graduation, Economy - What A Week!

If there was a single week that would make Coronavirus an after thought it was last week. Why? Momentous life events happened!

For a large group of Americans, the most important issue last week were the protests against racism across the country brought about by George Floyd and other black Americans who have recently been killed.

Whether you were you someone who could identify with the protestors, or were a business owner who saw their livelihood go up in flames, or were a protestor, this significant event has shaken the whole of America. On the fishing boat last week, a younger fisherman asked an older fisherman, is this like the Rodney King riots. The older man reiterated what I had told my sons the day before, "No. These protests are much more widespread. They are occurring across cities and towns throughout the United States. The King protests occurred in only a handful of big cities and looting occurred in even fewer." One side effect of the protest, is that more people are outside and mingling with others. For coronavirus numbers this is bad, but it shows the humanity of people, in that people of all colors are willing to face personal health risk to protest against an injustice.

For many students it was a week of finishing school. Seniors in high school and college graduated - remotely. Other students technically finished - although many were done when the coronavirus shut their schools down in March. Students missed Spring Break, Proms, Grad Nights, and all of the other fun end-of-year activities. Schools scrambled to try to make the end of the school special for their seniors whether it was a drive through celebration or zoom interactions. For non-seniors, like mine, it ended with a whimper. The principal emailed a congratulations to the students and staff for overcoming the challenges of the coronavirus these past three months and she looked forward to the Fall school year whatever it may look like.

Investor's Business Daily

Finally, for investors the big issue wasn't just the ongoing incredible "V" rebound in the stock market, but the drop in unemployment from 19% to 13% in May. On this news Friday, the stock market zoomed up 800 points. That brings the market to almost pre-coronavirus levels. Still, protests are raging across the U.S., there is no cure for the coronavirus, and new cases of coronavirus infection are soaring so I find the rapid rebound quite surprising. People with 401ks are definitely breathing a mighty sigh of relief.

Did you think less about the coronavirus last week?

Take care everyone.

Posts Tuesday and Saturday

(Painting the bathroom took longer that expected yesterday, so I am a day late.)

Coronavirus Fishing, Protests, and Curfews

"Curfew in effect from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m.," my cell phone buzzed with the message. Time 5:15 p.m., Sunday night.

A long way to reach this prize.

My fishing trip would leave from Ventura at 6 am Monday morning, meaning I would need to leave at 4 am - during the curfew.

Let the adventure begin.

After my Cabo San Lucas fishing trip was cancelled due to the travel ban between Mexico and the U.S., I was happy to see last week that California sportfishing was reopening June 1st.

Even better, my two teenage sons had agreed to join me.

I booked 3 tickets last week for the first day of fishing , understanding that all passengers would need to wear masks, the boat would be booked at half capacity, and social distancing would be enforced.

Then things got more interesting - protests and rioting began.

I was not too concerned about making our trip as we would be driving two blocks from my house on to the freeway at 4 a.m. to Ventura and figured there was little risk of getting caught in a confrontation with police or protestors.

Then the curfew message hit my phone. 

I tried to cancel with the sportfishing company, but they said, "There are no refunds because we are in Ventura County and there is no curfew here."

What to do? Lose the money? Lose the opportunity to get my teenage vampires out of the house and see the sun for the first time in weeks?

I told the boys if I can find a hotel in Ventura County, be ready to leave within 45 minutes. The boys were more amped up over something other than a video game in quite awhile. 

I found a Marriott in Oxnard (Ventura County) that was taking reservations and was able to use my points for the reservation. (I love mileage programs.)

The race to beat the curfew was on.

At 6:05 pm we were in the car and on the freeway, clothes, fishing poles, tackleboxes, and snacks packed.

Then we hit the protest.

Waze alerted me that the freeway was at a standstill  in Thousand Oaks. As we got closer to the little red line, symbols of police cars dotted the Waze map. I looked to see what businesses were just off the 101 Freeway on Moorpark - The Oaks shopping center. Crap. We found a protest. Not only that, Waze rerouted us off the freeway.

Oh my goodness, how many times has something gone wrong in a movie because travelers were rerouted off the freeway.  Sure enough, Waze us drive the city streets right past the mall, protestors, and police officers. Fortunately, it was a peaceful protest.  Cars honked in support and we were soon past and 20 minutes later arrived at our hotel.

In the 6-story hotel, only a half dozen lights were on in the windows. It appeared there were very few occupants. At check in, there was a barrier at the front desk to enforce social distancing. The front desk asked me to put my drivers license and credit car on the desk and step back. She stepped forward, checked us in, put our room key on the desk and stepped back. We stepped forward took the key and went to our room.  The new normal for checking in?

Of course in an empty hotel, a couple was placed in a room right next to ours.  To make matters worse our rooms shared an interior door for when large groups share rooms. I was not concerned about the coronavirus seeping through the cracks of the door, but I could hear every word the couple spoke. When my son asked if they were watching a porno next door I'd had enough, smiled, and said no. The front desk accommodated my request to change rooms.

Talk about an educational trip for my sons.

On the boat, a deckhand started off the trip with a speech that everyone needed to wear a face covering, keep their distance, and you could only be in the galley if you were eating. They would be strict because they did not want officials to suspend fishing again.

People abided by the rules for the majority of the trip. At the end of the long day (11 hours), most people kept their masks on, but people did sit next to each other on the way back due to the limited seating and really high seas rocking the boat. It was like, sit down or flip over the side of the boat.

Better have a seat - big waves!

More excitement for the boys.

When we got into my car, I read a text from my mom saying the curfew started at 5 pm. It was 5:30 pm. I figured that unless law enforcement locked down all of the freeways into Los Angeles, I would be able to make it home.

There was no traffic and we made it home in record time.

An amazing adventure.  Thank goodness I didn't take that Miami road trip last week. Who knows which state I would be stranded in today.

Things happen for a reason.

Be safe and take care.

Posts Tuesday and Saturday