Coronavirus A Step Backwards

Since my post a week ago, there has been little positive news on the coronavirus front. The US had one day of 85,000 new cases and another of 80,000.  Worse than these rising statistics is an article by CNBC stating that a study found coronavirus antibodies declining quickly after someone has recovered from the virus raising questions about herd immunity. 

Regarding vaccine news one poll reported that less than 50% of Americans would get vaccinated for the virus if a vaccine became available. In Russia, their much trumpeted vaccine released in August is being rolled out at a much slower place than originally claimed. Cases are rising in Russia.

I mentioned last week how the death rate had been rising at a much slower rate than the infection rate, but Wisconsin and Florida each had a day of over 60 coronavirus-related deaths in a single day.

European rates - infections, deaths, hospitalizations, are all spiking, but so is the anger against new rounds of safety restrictions. Protests are breaking out in Northern Italy and Spain.

Then two days ago, Walmart's CEO said customers are starting to stock up again. Please no more toilet paper shortages.

Taking my daily walk yesterday, I remarked to my wife how cold it was. It was 59 degrees at 9 am. That is winter weather in Los Angeles. My wife said she is going to break out the thermals and gloves tomorrow.  My boys have asked me to unbox the space heaters.

How does the cold relate to covid?

In Los Angeles, you can only eat outside at restaurants and workout outside (inside gyms are still closed). As it gets colder, people will not want to eat outdoors. People will huddle together indoors or more restaurants will close.

To give an example of how easily the virus can spread check out what happened on a recent set:

Each person had to take a rapid covid test before they left their car and joined the crew. A crew member asked where the woman went that was in the car next to mine.

His partner said, "She had to go to the restroom."

The crew member rolled his eyes, "Her test came back inconclusive."

Once she returned, they tested her again, and then sanitized the restroom while they waited for the results. Fortunately, the second test came back negative.

Should she have been forced to stay in her car until her results came back? Probably. But when you have to go, you have to go. Tricky situation.

If she had been covid positive and someone had followed her into the restroom before it was cleaned…14 day quarantines for everyone?

Take care and be safe.

Posts Tuesdays

Coronavirus When Will Disneyland Reopen

That is the million or billion dollar question for hordes of Southern California Magic Castle fans. It is also one of the questions of the 28,000 Disney employees that were recently laid off.

According to CNET, Governor Newsome said Disneyland and similar large theme parks can only open once their county reaches the yellow tier of infections. This means that no more than 1 new case of covid per 100,000 people living in that county. Currently, Orange County is in the red tier at 4.6 new cases per 100,000 people. Once Orange Country reaches that yellow level, then Disneyland can reopen, but park capacity will be capped at 25%.

Disney forcefully rejected that notion. All of their theme parks around the world are open from China to Paris to Florida. Only California remains closed.

The Governor's fear is that large theme parks with tens of thousands of visitors would act like super spreader locations like the week-long 365,000-person Sturgis Motorcycle Rally last August that did spread infections across the US.

So what happened when Walt Disney World (WDW) opened in July?

According to Eric Clinton president of one of the unions for cast members as reported by CinemaBlend, said very few if any cast members have had a work-related coronavirus infection at WDW since the reopening. 

Attendance is down due to limits on attendance. However, the Orlando Sentinel said on a recent day 19,000 people visited WDW down from a typical 60,000. Still 19,000 tourists plus cast members are a lot of people all in one place together. 

WDW has instituted a number of wellness measures including temperature screenings, wearing masks, enforcing social distancing, and limiting capacity. Fireworks, parades, and other activities have been curtailed. 

Those few commonsense safety changes seem to be keeping coronavirus in check. It all goes back to wearing a mask, social distancing, and sanitizing. The rule of 3  once again appears to be effective in keeping the virus at bay in yet another big venue. 

As I have said all along, I am personally concerned that a vaccine, if there is one, will not be ready until well into next year. Another vaccine trial (the third) has been suspended after a trial subject died in Brazil. If there is no safe vaccine for the next year or two, how long will California remain shutdown? Schools closed? Theaters shuttered? Winter is when flu season is the worst.

I know many people who have stated that even if there is a vaccine, they will not get it. 

The US just reported a 70,000-new-infection case day. The virus is not going away anytime soon.

It appears that California, at least Orange and Los Angeles Counties, will remain shutdown through at least the end of the year. 

So my musketeers, you will have to make the long journey to the other side of the country to ride a boat on the Pirates of the Caribbean before 2020 ends, maybe even 2021. Crazy, right?

Take care and be safe.

Posts Tuesday

 

Coronavirus Cases Up Deaths Down

Coronavirus infection numbers are going up worldwide.

India had over 60,000 new cases reported from 10/10 to 10/11. Europe is having a tsunami of new infections. As a whole, the continent reported 100,000 new infections last Friday with France having the largest increase - 20,000. The Spanish Prime Minister instituted a partial 15-day lockdown on Madrid after the city had an increase of 12,788 new covid cases. That is three times as many as Los Angeles. 

Speaking of Los Angeles, we had 970 new cases and 3 deaths yesterday.  This is compared to one of Los Angeles' worst reporting days - July 14 when there were 4,244 new cases and 73 deaths. 

This leads me to my second point, the number of deaths per the number of infections is down in the U.S.

According to worldometers.info, the worst daily death toll in the U.S. was April 21, with 2,748 deaths. The last day the U.S. reported over 1,000 coronavirus deaths in one day was on September 23 at 1,116. On October 10, the US reported 723. 

While the deaths have dropped by 2/3rds, unfortunately our infection rate remains high: April 21 26,875, September 23 41,868, October 10 54,235. It's not all bad. The worst day was July 24 with 78,893.

So if we look at new cases vs deaths for each of those 3 days: April 21 10.22%; September 23 2.67%; and October 10 .92%.

The good news (although none of this is really good news) is that more people are surviving who become infected. The bad news is over 50,000 people a day are still being infected with the Coronavirus across the country.

Whether the factor for decreasing death rate is medical professionals being more familiar with treating the disease, the disease becoming less virulent, or new medicines, it is good to know that if you do become infected, your chance of survival is pretty good.

In conclusion, the coronavirus is still running rampant. Even though people have a better chance of surviving an infection today than they did a couple of months ago, many people report long term mental and physical effects during what can be a lengthy recovery. Take care and be safe.

Here is an interesting side note I learned while I was researching this blog post:

Per John Hopkins University, the country with the most deaths per 100,000 people is not the U.S. We are number 6 even with the improved statistics above. Nor is it India, Brazil, or the United Kingdom. The dark title goes to Peru. To put their numbers in perspective, the U.S. mortality rate is 65.64 per 100,000, Peru is almost twice that at 104.11. Why?

The Associated Press reported that Peru's high numbers were due to using coronavirus rapid antibody tests the Peruvian government purchased from China. 

The government took this option because the test kits were cheaper and samples did not have to be sent to a lab to determine the results. It sounded like a good option, unfortunately it was too good to be true.

First, antibody tests are tests that determine whether or not a patient's body had developed antibodies to defeat the virus rather than a test that would determine if they were currently infected. The problem is that it can take days before a person's body develops antibodies to fight the virus. When these rapid antibody tests came back negative, patients would be sent home or let into work or school under the assumption they were not infected.

The other two issues with these tests were that some providers administered the test improperly and it was learned that many kits were faulty. 

Sad.

Posts Tuesdays

Coronavirus President Trump Infected

President Trump tested positive for Covid-19 last Thursday. By Friday he was in the hospital. And by Monday he was back at the White House.

Leaders around the world have tested positive since the beginning of the pandemic from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to the former President of India Pranab Mukherjee.

These cases that even though many of us have coronavirus fatigue, we have to remain vigilant in wearing our masks and social distancing. 

The aspect of Trump's infection that I found most interesting was the care that he received. First, he received supplemental oxygen within 24 hours of showing symptoms. This is a treatment most people would not receive until they felt sick enough to go to the hospital which could be days after the initial onset of symptoms. How many times have you decided to try and wait out a cold or flu before going to a hospital? I have many times. And many times I have gotten better. Even when I didn't, when I call my doctor, the usual response is, Don't come in, we will send you a prescription to your local pharmacy. Come in if the symptoms get worse." I am thinking, I wouldn't be calling you if the symptoms have not been worsening.

Second, even with the quick provision of supplemental oxygen, President Trump still went to the hospital where, according to the New York Times, he took an experimental cocktail of drugs, the drug remdesivir, the steroid dexamethasone, and other drugs to aggressively fight the virus.

Thank goodness our President survived catching covid-19.

With none of the major world leaders dying from coronavirus, it goes to show that early detection and aggressive treatment are keys to keeping people alive. My concern is that these leaders who have recovered may be left with an impression that the virus is not something to be as feared as it should be. They hopefully realize that the treatments and the rapidity in which medical care was provided to them are not luxuries available to the vast majority of people. 

I think that if the leader of your country catches the virus, it should be a wake up call that the virus should be even more feared as it proves no one is immune. Everyday I am seeing more people on the street without masks. I don't understand. Who wants to be sick?

Wear your mask and keep your distance.

Take care and be safe.

New posts Tuesdays

Coronavirus - The New Movie Watching Experience

Mulan on my TV at home. Drive-in theater on the top of the Glendale Galleria parking lot. Quibi - yet another new streaming service. 

Welcome to the new world of movie watching.

According to Timeout.com there are over 40 movies from the last 4 decades being shown at drive-ins across Los Angeles County. Some of these are the brick and mortar drive-ins like the Vineland in San Gabriel Valley that has been showing movies since 1952. Then there are the old brick and mortars that have not shown films in years and are primarily used as swamp meets by day. Rodium in the South Bay is a prime example. These drive-ins show classics as well as the latest movies like Unhinged and Bill and Ted Face The Music.

The majority of drive-ins now are inflatable pop-ups at hotels, outdoor malls, or in parks. Examples of these include Moana being shown at Magic Johnson Park, Jaws at Mel's Drive-In in West Hollywood, and Edwards Scissorhands and Pet Sematary.

However, the most popular form of movie watching has to be through one of a score of streaming apps. Off the top of my head I can name Netflix, Apple TV, HBO Max, Peacock, Quibi, Amazon, Vudu, YouTube TV, Sling TV, CBS All Access, Hulu and Showtime. I am sure that there are dozens more. Movies like Mulan, Hamilton, and Tom Hank's Greyhound were all released straight to streaming services instead of going through their planned movie theater releases. 

I read a crazy statistic on What's On Netflix.com. It said that Netflix has 2.2 million minutes of content currently available. If you sat down in front of you tv today for a long binge watching session, we would not see you for four years!  And this does not include watching content on other apps during the four year period including The Mandalorian on Disney or The Expanse on Amazon Prime Video, two of my favorite shows. 

And the best thing about streamers, you can watch them in a park, on a beach, in the mountains, in your bed, the options are endless.

The point is there are still many outlets and ways to watch new movies even with theaters in Los Angeles still closed.. 

So sit back on your couch or settle into your car seat and enjoy the show.

Take care and be safe.

Posts Tuesdays

https://www.whats-on-netflix.com/news/how-long-would-it-take-to-watch-all-of-netflix/