Coronavirus Thank Goodness Not 1918

50 million dead world wide! Life expectancy in the U.S. 39 years old! Most vulnerable population 20-40 year olds.*

Those are the horrifying stats of the Great Influenza Epidemic also known as the Spanish Flu of 1918. 

Masquerade Party, Twilight Zone

In 1918, social distancing, wearing gauze masks in public, closing schools, theaters, churches and businesses happened. But that is about where the similarities between 1918 and 2020 end.

In 1918:

• Little to no protective equipment for healthcare workers. It was advised to wear a gauze mask in sick rooms
• No gloves for nurses. Disposable gloves were not invented until 1965
• Doctors knew viruses existed but had never seen one because there were no electron microscopes, so no vaccines could be created
• Ventilators did not exist
• Mortality rate for Influenza was 2.5% for 1918; Cuomo said New York's rate in 2020 is about .5%

Today:

• we have hope - most people believe a vaccine will be developed and the economy will open by fall if not summer
• we have sick leave, unemployment insurance, Medicare for the poor
• we have Instacart, Ubereats, and Amazon
• we also have TV and even better-NETFLIX!

To conclude, be very happy that we are living today versus 1918.

Take care and be safe.

Posts Tuesday and Saturday

• https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/health/coronavirus-is-very-different-from-the-spanish-flu-of-1918-heres-how.html

Coronavirus Happy Car

Cars are taking a vacation on account of the coronavirus and its associated stay-at-home orders.  As a result, I am taking a car expense vacation.

My wife's daily 60-mile commute is over - gas expense $0. Son's school closed - his gas expense $0. The price of gas lowered from $3.50 in December to $2.89 today - a 17% savings per gallon.  Not bad. Although I was disappointed that gas station wasn't paying me to fill my tank when the price of a barrel of oil was negative $34 last week.

We have driven each of our cars at least once a week for at least 20 miles as recommended by torquenews.com to keep the battery charged and move the fluids around.  Even with this minimal driving, we have not had to refill our tanks in 6 weeks since the lockdown started.

We received a 20% rebate on our insurance premium for two months as ordered by the California insurance commissioner. (Check with your insurer.)

 

Maintenance expense is down: no car wash, it is going to be awhile before my next 6000 mile check up, and no rush hour means that my brakes will last longer.

Fear about exceeding the mileage on the warranty has decreased. If I was leasing a car right now, I would definitely be a happy camper.

So little car, enjoy your vacation, I appreciate the savings.

Be safe and take care.

Posts Tuesday and Saturday

Coronavirus Border Changes, What To Do?

One day the news is filled with people advocating for the removal of restrictions on the economy and the next day it is filled with advocates wanting more restrictions on people's movements.

Madrid, Spain

Mexico, Canada, and the United States agreed to extend their border closure to nonessential travel through May 20, 2020.

Spain canceled its running of the bulls celebration this summer and Germany canceled Oktoberfest in Munich.

Royal Caribbean Cruises said that their moratorium on sailings has been extended to June 11,2020.

Trump put a 60-day stop on immigration into the United States.

People in Hawaii are asking mainlanders not to visit.

Segovia, Spain

This takes me back to an earlier post asking when can we travel again. While countries throughout the world are debating loosening economic restrictions including domestic travel, it appears that international travel will be locked down for the foreseeable future.

European leaders are calling for a summit to discuss the travel industry as it relates to coronavirus issues in September or October. If they're not going to be ready to discuss international travel issues until that time, I cannot imagine non-essential travel to Europe being allowed prior to that date.

I have yet to cancel my July trip to Spain in the hope of a miraculous turnaround, but know that the likelihood of my planning, mileage award accumulations, and bookings will have to be undone.

Puerto Nuevo, Mexico

Looking south of the border, Mexico's coronavirus cases are soaring. Allowing people from the country with the most cases in the world, the U.S., to travel to their country any time soon also seems highly unlikely. There goes my June Cabo trip.

Will campgrounds in the U.S. reopen this summer? Plenty of physical distance there. Usually, you are only close to people in the restrooms or the grocery stores. Not much different from restrictions we are living under now.

Today, I made a reservation for a Mammoth campground as a backup trip. A gamble I know, but we can't be locked down in our homes through July, can we?

Take care and be safe.

Posts Tuesday and Saturday

Coronavirus Rebelling Against Stay At Home

More people are walking and driving everyday. My neighbor who is an essential worker and drives to work daily saw more cars on this road this week than she has seen in the previous month.

Yet stay-at-home orders have not become less restrictive. If anything they have become more restrictive - except in Jacksonville.

Are we ready?

It appears that people are getting used to the idea of living with a coronavirus-infected world and trying to

figure out how to make life work.

Protest against stay-at-home orders are increasing. Even President Trump tweeted his support for anti-stay-at-home protesters in Virginia, Michigan, and Minnesota. Protests are also taking place in Ohio, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Utah.

A friend of mine took a walk in his neighborhood last week for the first time in a month. My mother even visited me and my family a couple days ago for the first time in over a month. We kept our distance, but it was a huge step for her.

These two are not protestors. They are very concerned about the virus and what would happen to them as they are at-risk for complications. Yet, they are tired of staying at home and being isolated. How much longer are people supposed to self-isolate?

The National Institutes of Health spokeswoman said they were "hoping" to have a vaccine available for first responders and healthcare workers this Fall and the rest of America in the Spring. Americans are going to have to figure out how to move forward unvaccinated as the economy, borders, and recreational activities cannot be closed until next Spring let alone next Fall.

Jacksonville opened its beaches today and people swarmed the sands according to news reports. Yet each person interviewed on the beach said about the same thing: "It is great to be out here. Hopefully, everyone keeps their distance so as not to ruin this freedom for the rest of us. It can't be any more dangerous than going to the grocery store or golf course."

The contrasts in attitudes across the country about being opened or closed and opening sooner rather than later is vast. But it appears that more and more people are leaning towards opening and loosening rather than closing and tightening.

I am one of those who is ready for society to open again.

Take care and be safe.

Posts: Tuesday and Saturday

Coronavirus America 5 Weeks Later

Five weeks since the coronavirus shut down Los Angeles and wow things have changed.

There are lines to enter grocery stores.

U.S., Mexico, and Canada's borders are closed.

Most states have instituted stay-at-home orders and in many like California, you have to wear a mask to conduct business in public.

Millions are unemployed, the market is still way down with talks of a depression, and layoffs - or the word of the day "furloughs" - seem to be speeding up.

Nurses in Detroit are striking, people in Michigan are protesting against stay-at-home orders, and Amazon is firing workers who complain about worker safety.

And public schools are essentially closed.

Crazy times indeed.

Who could have envisioned an America like this two months ago?

Life in America will change forever going forward, even if the changes seem small.

For example, tens of millions of Americans are now working from home. It has to change the value of having to work in an office for many of those jobs. If a worker has worked from home effectively for two, three, or four months, and an employee asks his boss to work from home one day a week when we all go back, how can she say no.  As a result, office space needs will decrease. Commuting will decrease. People will have more free time. Childcare needs will lessen. Traffic will decrease. Less gas will be purchased. Gas prices will go down. Oil company stock prices will go down. There will be less drilling. Ok, maybe I am getting carried away here, but you can see the ramifications of how just this one change will create shockwaves for the economy and society.

Distance education, food delivery, remote hospital visits, all things that seemed like fringe activities in the past are part of everyone's reality now and will be so going forward.

Tuesday, my Toastmasters club held its first online meeting. Toastmasters at its core is an organization that improves a person's ability to create and deliver effective speeches. It was very interesting to see how different a person has to prepare to provide an effective speech during a Zoom session. Does the speaker stand or sit? If you sit, how do you engage audience members with hand gestures, body movement? You can't walk around the stage. I think it is even harder to keep an audience engaged because they are not in the same room with you. There are more distractions for them in their home. It is also harder to read your audience to see if you need to pick up the pace or are speaking too fast. How do you engage in eye contact when you are only staring straight into your camera. I look forward to the challenge when I give my speech in two weeks.

2020 a time of change.

Take care and be safe.

Posts Monday, Thursday, Saturday

Coronavirus Lessening Restrictions

Brighter days ahead?

"Spain and Italy preparing to begin lifting restrictions as fatalities continue to decrease…" -  People

"Cuomo says he believes 'the worst is over'…" - Al Jazerra

"…improving China trade data." - CNN

(links to full articles below)

While the headlines are saturated with the negative consequences of the coronavirus - lockdowns, deaths, companies shuttering, the stories above and a number of others indicate that there are good times ahead.

China began lifting restrictions last week.Spain and Italy are starting this week. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying it is over. Far from it. Restrictions are still in place in all three countries. But these countries are providing a glimpse of how life may slowly return to normal in the United States and the consequences.

One of the first things that happened in Wuhan, China was 50,000 citizens fled the city. That gave me pause. If the city was over the virus, why are its citizens fleeing.

Pictures of Spain showed police and metropolitan employees handing out masks to their very few passengers.

Some people say its too early. We need to have a vaccine in place before restrictions can be lifted.

The coronavirus era has been intense, but it is not unheard of.

On Joe Rogan's podcast, his guest remembered the Hong Kong Flu of 1968. According to the CDC, it killed 1,000,000 globally and 100,000 in the U.S., mostly individuals 65 and older. This virus continues to circulate worldwide as seasonal influenza A today.  Ten years before that flu, the Asian Flu had similar mortality statistics.

With swine flu in 2009, people were told to stay home if sick. I remember this one. It sickened one of my coworkers who I am thankful to say made a full recovery. This flu actually killed more people younger than 65 as well as those who were pregnant because the theory goes, they had not been exposed to the pandemic of the 60's. Yet, the economy did not shutdown. People were told not to go to work if sick, but that was the extent of the restrictions in my daily life. The CDC also stated this virus continues to circulate around the world as a seasonal flu virus.

Considering two of the most virulent pandemic viruses of the past 50 years are still circulating around the world getting people sick, waiting for a coronavirus vaccine before reopening the economy doesn't sound possible.

What happens during the next pandemic? More months of economic lockdown? Can the world economies afford another economic lockdown?

Current worldwide coronavirus deaths are 119,666 and in the U.S. 23,604 according to Wikipedia tonight.

When does the U.S. lift restrictions? Definitely a thorny issue. Government employees and politicians are definitely earning their salaries.

https://people.com/health/spain-and-italy-will-begin-lifting-coronavirus-restrictions-as-fatalities-continue-to-decrease/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-deaths-slow-italy-france-live-updates-200413000419105.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/investing/global-stocks/index.html

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

Coronavirus Education Holiday

Surprising changes to my son's education since the coronavirus hit:

Three-week spring break with no days added to end of the school year

District grading policy: 2nd semester grades will be the same or higher than the 3rd quarter grades

No live classes

Now this last item is just for my son, at least after the first week of his distance learning program. He had to complete worksheets, online quizzes, a test, and watch one video. There were no live or prerecorded lessons from his teachers yet.

Needless to say, my son is very happy.

I have mixed feelings.

I like the fact that due to the light workload he is completing his work on his own in a short amount of time. I like that he feels confident that he can finally keep up with his work. Rather than spending all day at school and hours working on homework every night, he is only spending an hour or two a day on schoolwork. I like that we are not arguing over when he will complete his work.

But, I do not like that a neighboring school district has had a distance program up and running a week before our district.

I do not like that I have heard from families with children in private schools, whether very expensive to relatively inexpensive, that their children have been in full day online classes since the beginning of the crises. I feel that their children are learning so much more than my son.

My biggest fear is that when my son starts school next year, he will be ill-prepared for the rigors of 11th grade after 2 months of light schoolwork and 3 months of summer break. Of course, an almost 5-month educational holiday of relaxation, confidence building, and no homework arguments may turn out to be the best experience for both my son and our family.

This is a new world we have entered, a new educational experiment. I just wish my son wasn't the sample group receiving the less than rigorous education.

Take care and be safe.

Posts: Monday, Thursday, Saturday

Coronavirus When Can We Travel?

"Americans may be able to take summer vacations, Fauci says," according to CNN 4/9/20.

 

This headline brought a smile to my face when I looked at my phone this morning.

 

Apart from being safe at home, one of my big concerns about the coronavirus is if I will have to or even be able to cancel a trip I have booked this summer. And the most important question, "Will it be safe?"

 

The trip is to complete the Camino de Santiago. Unfortunately, that destination is in Spain, one of the most adversely affected coronavirus hotspots in the world.

 

I have been reading Spain news daily everyday to see how the country's coronavirus rates have changed. Today, Fox News said Spain could be seeing the start of a coronavirus decline. That's good news.

 

Especially since, as of today, airlines are only allowing you to cancel or change your flights without a fee for trips that commence before May 31, 2020. 

 

What happens if travel bans are lifted at the end of May? Would you feel safe enough to travel in June?

 

What if you can only cancel with a fee?

 

Perhaps there may be more travel restrictions put in place as Dr. Fauci suggests: taking temperature readings at airports, wearing masks on planes, continued social distancing, and no handshaking.

 

As of today, if travel bans are lifted I am going. I will mind any restrictions and recommendations by government and travel agencies.

 

I feel that you have to maintain your goals for as long as you can. It gives you something to strive for, a sense of purpose during these murky days. To prepare for the Camino de Santiago, I workout daily in my living room thanks to all the free online content - thanks Barry's and Nike Training Club! I also walk daily practicing social distancing and wearing a mask.

 

I hope that Dr. Fauci's hopeful words come to pass and that we can all take vacations this summer safely.

 

Take care and be safe.

 

Posts: Monday, Thursday, and Saturday

Coronavirus Mother Nature Fights Back

"The Earth is shaking less under coronavirus," said the CBS News headline on April 6, 2020.

"Goats take over town amid coronavirus lockdown," CNN, March 31, 2020.

 

"L.A.'s Air Quality Is Better Than Its Been in Decades," Los Angeles Magazine, April 6, 2020.

Article after article is coming out about how quickly mother nature is healing herself and throwing off human's grip as we are forced to stay at home due to the coronavirus. Now if the coronavirus is some ancient bat disease instead of an escaped bio weapon from a Wuhan lab, mother nature really is giving us a kick in the pants.

Everyday, the people of Los Angeles are reminded of how beautiful our city can be. When we look outside our windows and see the bright blue skies and crisp outlines of the city's landscape rather than blurry shapes in front of the usual dingy sky we remember why we love our great city.

The stay-at-home orders have had almost everyone in Los Angeles travel less, whether for business or pleasure. This means fewer cars on the road. NPR said truck traffic has decreased 21% (maybe those are the toilet paper trucks). And there are fewer planes in the sky. For three days after 9/11 when all commercial flights were grounded in the U.S, the United States warmed 3.6 degrees according to a news report from WTAJ News on 9/11/19.  I wonder how much warmer we will be after months of decreased flights.

As if the coronavirus was not enough, mother nature is employing a second method of enforcing the stay-at-home order in Los Angeles. After a dry February, rain has been falling on Los Angeles throughout March and April. So much rain fell on March 22 that it broke a single day record. And as any Angeleno knows, when it rains in LA we panic and stay home.

 

So embrace what nature has to show us: clean air, wildlife running amok, and especially for Angelenos, a less shakier earth.  Soon enough we will be back in the traffic and smog of the city we call home.

Take care and be safe.

Posts: Monday, Thursday, and Saturday

Coronavirus Invincibility Masks?

What a difference a week makes.

A week ago, the CDC said the general public should not wear masks unless they were sick or caring for someone who had the coronavirus. Wearing a mask didn't prevent you from catching the coronavirus, but if you had it, wearing a mask would help you from spreading it to others. The danger of always wearing a mask  was that taking a mask on and off meant that you were touching your face, thereby increasing your chance of becoming infected.

Fast forward one week, now the CDC says people should wear a mask because it is helpful to prevent community transmission of covid-19. The CDC Director Robert Redfield said up to one in four people infected with the virus could be asymptomatic. In other words, you can have no symptoms but still be spreading the disease. Even a cut up t-shirt would be better than nothing. 

During my grocery store run a week ago, few people wore mask. No plastic shields separated checkers  from the customers and while they wore gloves, they did not wear masks. Everyone was very good about giving each other space. The store had fewer customers and they seemed calmer than the previous week when the stay-at-home order was instituted. It seemed that the initial panic had subsided.

Fast forward to yesterday. The majority of people at Ralphs wore masks. Plastic barriers were in place for the masked checkers. There were a lot more people in the grocery store and a I saw the fear creeping back into some people's eyes. But my biggest concern was the social/physical distance gap between people had
decreased. 

In the milk aisle I suddenly found myself ambushed by masked bandits. Four shopping carts driven by six people in masks surrounded me. I said an expletive, left my cart where it was, and waited a safe distance away until the group of strangers broke up. The ambush repeated itself in the bread aisle. 

Even our modern day superheroes, the grocery checker, she leaned forward to ask me a question even though I was not behind her plastic barrier because I was bagging my groceries.

Even scarier were the increased number of individuals in their 70s and 80s shopping in the store since the crisis began. They were wearing masks. Perhaps the masks gave them the confidence to go shopping, but remember a non-medical mask only helps you from spreading it, not getting it.

When I mentioned this to my mother as I dropped off her groceries, she said she had heard that that was the CDC's big worry when they recommended that people should wear masks. People might feel safer with masks and would violate the social distancing and stay-at-home rules.

Everyone, please remember these three rules: 1, stay-at-home unless you have to go out; 2, keep practicing social and physical distancing; and 3, a mask does not make you invincible to the coronavirus so remember rules 1 and 2 . Until this week, the CDC was saying that wearing a mask was more dangerous than not wearing one.

Be safe and be healthy.

Posts: Monday, Thursday, Saturday

Coronavirus Xbox To The Rescue

"…school campuses will remain physically closed for the remainder of the year."

That one sentence from my son's school yesterday brought a wide range of conflicting emotions to my household.

Parents: dread, fear, stress

Kids: hope, freedom, loneliness

The first sign of how the coronavirus adversely affected my son was when he, unbeknownst to his parents, invited his friend over to play Xbox. His friend said his father wasn't letting him go anywhere.

These last three weeks with the whole family at home have been good. And I wondered, why have there been fewer arguments, less stress, than when the four of us have been home together in the past. 

One word comes to mind: Homework

The second is: Xbox

I knew homework was a source of stress in our lives, but never truly appreciated how good life could be without it.  Now not only will parents have to help kids manage their homework, but also manage their classwork. The question is no longer are you smarter than a fifth-grader, it is are you smarter than a tenth-grade math teacher?

  

Initially, my son's face lit up when he heard he no longer had to go to school. I knew he was thinking more Xbox time and his new game was coming out April 2. Then I reminded him about the one online course he took last semester and how tough it was for him to self motivate himself to complete the assignments on time. The smile disappeared. 

Fortunately, my oldest son is already out of high school, so we only have to help my youngest son complete his work. Hopefully my oldest son will jump in and help as well.

But it is my oldest son that is missing school the most. By June, he was set to finish the two trade schools he was enrolled in,  pursue his career, and move on with his life. Unfortunately, both schools are closed. They require a certain number of hands-on training hours to complete the programs. If the schools open May 5 as scheduled, he could finish by August. But there's a very real chance that they may not reopen until the Fall. He told me a week ago, "Dad, I really miss school." Those were words that I had never heard him say.

He has applied for grocery store jobs but with no luck. Since we claim him as a dependent he cannot receive the stimulus check even though he worked last year and paid taxes.

The best thing for both of my sons has been the Xbox. Not only as a break from reality, but as a social tool. I hear both boys talking, laughing, and arguing with their buddies and each other as they play together online.  I hear them talk about school, dating, and politics.

The best decision I made at Christmas was to buy a second Xbox to prevent sharing conflicts.

Microsoft's new marketing angle should be: "Beat self-isolation - connect with Xbox! Prevent conflicts, buy one for each family member."

However, the Xbox can't hide the fact that homework is coming, 6.6 million people went on unemployment last week, and schools are closed.

As parents we just have to continue doing what we have been doing all along, prepare, help, and educate. Plus, it wouldn't hurt if we got some Xbox play time in their along with their kids.

Take care everyone.

Posts: Monday, Thursday, Saturday